Why is this increase larger than the moves earlier in June?
Earlier June increases were driven primarily by GRI and PSS implementation tied to early peak-season demand. This latest jump compounds that pressure with frontloading ahead of the July bunker adjustment factor (BAF) reset, which carriers have signaled will add a meaningful surcharge layer on top of base rates. Shippers are rushing to book before the BAF takes effect rather than waiting and paying both the higher base rate and the new surcharge.
| Lane | Weekly Change | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Far East → US West Coast | +29% WoW | GRI/PSS stacking + BAF frontloading |
| Far East → US East Coast | +25% WoW | Tight Gulf/East Coast capacity from China, Vietnam |
- Capacity on East Coast and Gulf Coast services from China and Vietnam is reported as particularly tight relative to West Coast lanes.
- The active US-China 90-day tariff truce window continues to pull import demand forward, compounding the BAF-driven frontloading.
- Carriers have given limited guidance on when this rate cycle might ease, citing both tariff-driven demand and capacity management as ongoing factors.
Should shippers expect another correction soon?
Frontloading-driven rate spikes have historically been followed by corrections once the pulled-forward demand is absorbed, but the layering of multiple drivers here (GRI, PSS, and now BAF frontloading) makes the timing of any pullback harder to predict than in a single-driver rate cycle. Shippers should not assume the current level is a ceiling, given carriers have shown willingness to keep adding surcharges on top of already-elevated base rates.
What Shippers Should Do
- If cargo must move in the next two to three weeks, book now rather than waiting for a pullback that carriers have given no indication is imminent.
- Confirm directly with your carrier or forwarder whether the July BAF is already reflected in your current quote or will be added separately at sailing.
- For East Coast and Gulf Coast bound cargo from China or Vietnam specifically, expect less flexibility on space than West Coast lanes given the tighter capacity reported there.
- Track week-on-week index movement rather than relying on a quote taken even a few days ago, given the pace of change this cycle.